This is the beginning of season 3. I provide background on where we’ve been and where we are going along with a market update.
Payback Time Podcast
Payback Time is a podcast for investors. The goal of this podcast is to help make investing approachable and easy to understand. We will interview beginner and experienced investors and ask them to share stories on how they got started, what challenges they faced, what mistakes they made, and what strategy works for them today. The overall objective is to provide you with a roadmap that helps you become a better investor.
(00:18) – Show intro
(00:36) – Context, show history and Season 3 goals
(03:19) – Market Update
[00:00:04.090] – Sean
Hey, this is Sean Tepper, the host of Payback Time, an approachable and transparent podcast on business investing in finance. I’d like to bring our guests to hear authentic stories while giving you actionable takeaways you can use today. Let’s go. I’d like to officially welcome you to season three of the Payback Time podcast. If you’ve been with us for the long haul, all thanks for sticking around and if you’re new, I hope you’re excited for what’s to come.
[00:00:29.870] – Sean
So what I want to do is give you a little context on how we started and where things are going with the podcast itself. So I started this podcast in, I think it was July 2020. My initial focus for season one was the fire movement, financial independence, retire early. My challenge was finding people who actually achieved fire was easier said than done. So what I did is I interviewed people who were either starting a business or had a business that was growing, some investors, stock investors as well as wealth managers and then some real estate investors.
[00:01:04.510] – Sean
And the goal was really just to get momentum with the podcast. I knew it wasn’t going to be perfect, but I just wanted to move forward. And that led to season two where I wanted to focus more on retail investors. And that was actually kind of hard as well because not every John and Jane Doe out there wants to jump on the podcast and share their investment story, what mistakes they made, some of their losses, some of their wins, what do they invest in today? I did get some of that, which was a lot of fun and I still want to get some of that.
[00:01:31.070] – Sean
But again, it was more business investing in finance. So entrepreneurs, wealth managers as well as real estate investors and leading up to really within the last few months and getting feedback from you guys, you’ve been telling me that the podcast seems to be a little more approachable than other podcasts on business investing in finance. What I try to do is I try to break things down in simple terms. If a guest is using complex language, let’s get past that and let’s get to the layman’s terms essentially. And then what I also try to do is extract takeaways.
[00:02:06.810] – Sean
What can you and I do today? Like, what actions can we take? And that’s really my goal is I want to get at least one, if not several, like takeaways we can do today. There are other podcasts I listen to that they’re filled with a lot of fluff and I don’t walk away with anything I can actually do. So I’m going to continue doing more of that.
[00:02:28.020] – Sean
With season three. We really want to focus on making this podcast even more approachable and really breaking things down in simple terms and especially give people like you some actions, something you can do with your business or with your stock portfolio. If you’re a real estate investor, or if you want to create some kind of passive income, that’s really the purpose with the podcast. And of course, like I said, in simple terms, what I also want to do at least once a month is do a better job of providing like a market update on YouTube. It might be like two to three minutes, maybe a little longer, and then do that on the podcast as well.
[00:03:06.590] – Sean
So we’ll just take the same snippets and put it in both locations, YouTube and the podcast. So, speaking of, I want to give a little update, and this is as of December 19, as of the recording, here’s a little update on the market. So over the duration of 2022, we had seven interest rate hikes to drive down inflation. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, has done a fantastic job. He’s doing the same thing I would do.
[00:03:34.280] – Sean
And this is really a lesson learned from 1982. It was the great global recession where inflation was rising really fast. They had no choice but to raise interest rates. The Fed chair at the time was getting a lot of heat, and I know Jerome Powell today gets the same amount of heat, but there’s no way around it. That’s the only way to drive down inflation.
[00:03:58.570] – Sean
So over the duration of 2022, we had four hikes at zero point 75%. The recent was 0.5%, which caused the market to go up a little bit. This is a positive sign in the right direction, and what we can likely see is another 0.5 increase. It’s an article from Forbes saying that the next hike could happen around January 31, 2023. So another .5% at that time, we could see the market take off just a little bit.
[00:04:29.190] – Sean
Leading up to that, it’s probably going to be steady states, no major changes. So the market as of today, the Nasdaq is down about 30% and SMP is down about 19%. So both are down significantly. Still, great stockpiling opportunity. I’m buying as much as I can every month.
[00:04:47.740] – Sean
I recommend, if you have some spare cash, try to do the same because a lot of people, they wait for the market to recover and even go well into the positive, and then they start buying. It’s a big mistake. You don’t want to wait that long. So going into 2023 again, we could see another 0.5 increase. But let’s say that starts to move to zero point 25%.
[00:05:11.490] – Sean
That’s even better. And at that point, there’s this trend from zero point 75 to 0.5 to 00:25. The market could really start taking off. Now, for context, that great global recession, that was about two years. We’re in it about a year right now.
[00:05:27.360] – Sean
Tech stock started to fall off a cliff about a year ago. It was November. I remember my stock started to nosedive November of 2021. So we’re in it about a year, a little over. And I don’t foresee this going another full year.
[00:05:44.240] – Sean
It could, of course, but if these interest rates do decrease, like we go from 0.5 to zero point 25%, that’s a great sign. And the market could really start taking off. So up until that point, don’t wait. Right now, again, try to buy what you can on sale stocks in Tykr really strong financials. Those stocks are going to take off like a rock.
[00:06:07.680] – Sean
It’s most likely when this market turns around, so I’m probably going to provide another update sometime, maybe mid January leading up to this new hike. But again, I’m going to do my best to continue to make the podcast more approachable and provide more market updates like this. If you have any questions on the market or specific stocks you want me to talk about, go ahead, leave a comment on YouTube. I’ll do my best to answer. We’ll talk to you soon.
[00:06:33.120] – Sean
See you. Hey, I’d like to say thank you for checking out this podcast. I know there’s a lot of other podcasts you could be listening to, so thanks for spending some time with me. Also, if you have a moment, could you please head over to Apple podcast and leave a review? The more reviews we get, the more Apple will share this podcast with the world.
[00:06:51.400] – Sean
So thanks for doing that. And last thing, if you do hear any stocks mentioned on this podcast, please keep in mind this podcast is for entertainment purposes only. Please do not make a buy or sell decision based solely and what you hear. All right, thanks for your time. Talk to you later.
[00:07:08.780] – Sean